Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Transform Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Caution

A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."